It is a curious but perfectly natural phenomenon that so many clients ask me for a specific number, or a percentage of how I feel their chances of success will be. If I am offering my services to that client, it is because I am confident of obtaining a positive result based on the information provided to me.
However, if we look at the emotions behind the question and examine the cause, it is really that each client is asking for some sort of assurance. And it is understandably so as the amount of money put into the pursuit of migration, is not insignificant.
In order to try and satisfy this demand for the chances of success, I present here some of the statistics published by DIBP.
If we look at the chart of Invitations by Points Score, we see that for this round of invitations, just over 1010 invitations were issued for applicants with only 60 points. Roughly 960 invitations were issued for applicants with 65 points, and roughly another 290 invitations for applicants with higher points.
We know that the total number of invitations issued for the 189 visa was 2300. We can therefore calculate that for this round of invitations, around 43.9% of the invitations went to applicants with only 60 points and 41.7% went to applicants with 65 points. Roughly 12.6% were issued for applicants with higher scores.
So from these numbers, if you know the EOI score you are claiming, you can therefore expect the corresponding chances of success in obtaining an invitation to apply.
Please take note that in addition to the number of points, EOI’s get time priority as well. That means, if 2 applicants with the same points apply with a 1 minute difference in time, the first applicant will be invited before the 2nd. This means that if there are a large number of applicants, the queue will get longer and therefore, there will result in a longer wait to obtain an invitation to apply.
The results of this round of EOI invitations can be viewed here: http://www.border.gov.au/WorkinginAustralia/Pages/SkillSelect-3-august-2015-round-results.aspx
Using the skills select link, you may look at the proportions of invitations given to each points category in each round of invitations to get a feel for the chances you may have.
Also, please take into account that these statistics only describe invitations which have been issued, not the number of applications received by the Department.
So what do you think? Are you able to calculate the percentage likelihood that a visa application will be successful?